Today’s games have given very little further illumination in this.
The 3rd place team in Group G (Egypt, Iran, Belgium, New Zealand) is still the most likely opponent for the winner of Canada’s group (~57%).
Third place in Group J (Argentina, Austria, Algeria, and Jordan) is also possible (~36%).
WheatNOil
Via The Athletic calculator:
If Canada loses G3, 77% chance they play South Korea.
Win or Draw G3, most likely opponents are Egypt (21%), Algeria (19%), Austria (13%). 5 other teams between 5-10%. 7 teams between 1-5%
None of the game today have a significant impact on the most likely opponents.
WheatNOil
48 teams in 12 groups being whittled down to 32 teams really makes no logical sense. But it does create some wild permutation math in predicting match-ups that really appeals to the sports math sickos (like me), so I’ll give it credit for that.
