Analyst @ Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Sociology PhD Univ. Stirling (2019-2024). Interested in communities and place, health inequalities and ethnic labour market penalties.
Scot Hunter
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Frustrated with the election pundits talking as if votes only 'swing' from one party to another. I did some analysis of the results, and my modelling (based on votes only, not polls) suggests that the largest movement since 2024 local elections (by a long way) is from 'Did Not Vote' -> Reform
Unmet social and economic need is increasingly showing up in voting behaviour. Strengthening social infrastructure alongside tackling deprivation should be a priority for all parties seeking to respond. 6/6
People with fewer community spaces, groups & activities are turning away from the two-party system in greater numbers.
New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis of the recent elections shows that community need may be an even stronger predictor of anti-establishment voting than deprivation alone. 1/6
In wards facing both high deprivation and weak social infrastructure, combined Green + Reform vote share rose from 12% to 54% between 2021–24 and 2026. Labour + Conservative collapsed from 68% to 33%. 4/6
public.flourish.studio/story/3682421/
Oliver Skånberg-Tippen
Although it is too early to assess its impact, the Government's Pride in Place programme targets this double disadvantage, but the electoral shift was similar in funded areas and unfunded ones alike. The scale of unmet need goes beyond current investment. 5/6
