📷”The Aurora Guy”
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
Vincent Ledvina
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Bright aurora above a cabin in Beaver, Alaska - population 63.
Ugh, forgot to attach the image. Let the Eye of Sauron stare down your soul lol.
A large coronal hole is facing Earth currently with chances for fast wind to impact around June 11. Minor-moderate geomagnetic storming could occur as Earth encounters the high-speed wind. There are some chances for mid-latitude aurora around Thursday-Friday.
#heliophysics
But, if you see some solar wind enhancements around Friday-Sunday, this could be a source. We also have a coronal hole hopefully starting to affect us on Thursday, so this could be a tiny cherry on top to that!
(hopefully tracking another CME does not induce PTSD from the last week)
… and the crowd went mild. Our CME has arrived, and we’re barely above background solar wind strength 😴 oh well! I’ll have a debrief about these events later today. I’m not expecting more CMEs at this point.
Heads up! We have a little baby wimpy CME headed towards Earth! NOAA decided it was worth modeling, but it *could* impact around midnight UTC June 14 (Saturday night). NASA has it arriving a full day earlier. In other words, this is a low-confidence, low-impact event.
We drove five hours to see this aurora. Worth it?
Vincent Ledvina
Vincent Ledvina
Yes, the G3 and G2 watches have been canceled, but there may be a re-issue of a storm watch since there are possibilities we still will see a CME arrive at Earth in the next 12-24 hours. Or not! The CME forecast SWPC issued was too optimistic and did not verify.
I think G3 is too optimistic, but if something does arrive at Earth with maybe 10-15 nT and 500-600 km/s, if Bz plays along, G2 storming is possible.
I am just going off of available data and translating existing forecast information. After all of this, do I think the CME will arrive AT ALL? I say 70% yes, but I don't know if it will amount to much. The later the arrival, the weaker the impact and lower the potential is for a large aurora event.
