PhD candidate @LSEGovernment 📚 Interested in campaigns, applied data science and field experiments 💻 he/him
🌐 lenmetson.com
Len Metson
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Cannot recommend this documentary enough !
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
This was the 2024 result in Makerfield, where Josh Simons is standing down to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament.
It's going to be really, really tough for Burnham to win it.
This whole by-election will now be about the future PM. Have we ever seen a by-election like it?! It will change the calculations, divert so many resources there, make the choice high stakes. Maybe even a slam dunk result that shows Reform's vulnerabilities. A killer move, if so, for Burnham.
One of the largest drops in nhs waiting lists on record, which no one will now hear about. Opportunity cost from all the leadership turmoil
www.england.nhs.uk/2026/05/heal...
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Turnout measured in surveys is notoriously tricky, but I'm surprised that 2024 LDM voters seem similarly demobilized to 2024 CON & LAB voters, and strikingly more so in Wales
Early individual-level survey data from around the local elections 👇 allows us to start understanding what drove the huge LAB (& CON) losses, which the ward-level data we've seen so far just can't tell us
Nationally, this suggests Labour vote disproportionately stayed at home or went to another left party. Massive collapse to Plaid in Wales.
Reform turned out an energised base with some switchers on top. Greens also. Lab->Reform exists but not the major part of the picture.
Does anyone know of (/have) individual-level data on "split ballot" voting (i.e. voting for candidates from different parties) in English local elections?
