Informative back of the napkin estimates of global demand vs post-Hormuz closure oil flows.
Judah Grunstein
Bear with me here, I'm thinking out loud. Total global petroleum liquids demand pre crisis was roughly 105mm bpd. Of that roughly 21mm bpd went through Hormuz. So we need to make up 21mm bpd.
Iran's illicit flows were 2mm bpd earlier now call it 1mm, that's probably optimistic but whatever.
George Pearkes
a VLCC is ~2m bbl, so that's 50 transits - not impossible for dark transits and/or iranian ships but, like, it's at the outer bound of how much has been slipping through
also given prior flows were something like 21m bbl/day, uh, congrats, that's 5 days worth of normal flow
