Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab
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Chris Giles
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NEW PODCAST: The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government
@helenmiller.bsky.social, @chrisgiles.ft.com & @maxwarner.bsky.social discuss the state of the public finances, why borrowing costs matter, and how much room there is to do things differently.
🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
#MacroMonitor, a real-time dashboard tracking UK GDP & inflation, launches this week @ucleconomics.bsky.social
5 June speakers include Swati Dhingra, Ana Galvao, @chrisgiles.ft.com, Simon Lloyd @bankofengland.bsky.social & Ivan Petrella
www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle...
But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows.
My newsletter
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If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
Launching 5th June, the UCL MacroMonitor will provide reliable and timely signals for the UK economy for policymakers, business, academics, and the media
And the ECB thinks it is at neutral, while the Fed and BoE think rates are restrictive
So - the only way is up for the ECB
One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office....
... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival?
www.ft.com/content/161a...
Chris Giles
This shock is more global than Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that imparts more of an inflationary impulse
Must read ONS blog on seasonal patterns in GDP data
(Of course we know GDP fell in Q1 as it always does, so the poor ONS has to work out what the underlying moves are at a time when spending patterns are changing - this is hard)
blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/05/14/h...
Eurozone energy prices are higher than the March baseline, but not screaming "raise rates"
But....that is not all
My newsletter www.ft.com/content/19f0...
Romesh Vaitilingam
Formative experiences shape our views on future inflation as much as the data
