OK so here's some explanation given that chart below blew up for no reason. Here's the same data with 4 strongest El Nino years for Aug-Oct: 1982, 1987, 1997, 2015. It's interesting that we might have a 0.5c head start on these years as the SSTs potentially warm. End of story.
Richard Dixon
OK so is it safe to say that "something is happening" ?!