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The ocean is inherently chaotic, yet existing data-driven ocean models produce deterministic forecasts. In our new preprint, we introduce Njord, a probabilistic graph neural network for ensemble ocean forecasting. Link: arxiv.org/abs/2605.15470 A couple highlights below 🧵

• K-means cluster meshes. Latitude weighted spherical K-means produces a mesh that conforms better to ocean grids by construction compared to previously used quadrilateral or icosahedral meshes.

• Sea ice is predicted alongside other physical state variables. Smooth invertible activation functions together with a binary density channel keep ice variables within realistic bounds.