Politics & Society Lead @ourworldindata.org. I make research on democracy, human rights, and conflict easier to access and understand. he/him
Check out my work: https://ourworldindata.org/team/bastian-herre
Bastian Herre
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New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social)
Do opinion polls shape election results?
Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language?
New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
I'm working on a project on cross-national young gender gap that shows dif patterns. The below w ESS & CSES data show 1. Dif in ideology (id=standardized by country) btwn young men & women, where x is year & y is standard deviations 2. Young men & women ideology relative to other age-gender groups
Many maps offer snapshots of how the world looked at one point in time. But few track changes over time.
That’s why I like the CShapes data so much: it identifies all independent states, their dependent territories, borders, and capitals for each year between 1886 and 2019.
What's the best chart making the case for democracy?
The one below is a strong contender for me: there have been very few famines under democratic rule.
But I would be curious to hear about others!
I agree with @charlesjkenny.bsky.social, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social, and Euan Ritchie that the OECD should not expand its eligibility for foreign aid to some high-income countries, and should instead target aid to poorer countries, where it’s needed most:
www.cgdev.org/blog/when-co...
It's by @nilsweidmann.bsky.social and colleagues.
You can find the interactive map here: cshapes.ethz.ch
This is a very nice article that shows that in recent cases of democratic erosion, people were often still able to stop it through elections:
www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While
research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves,
little is known about how it resonat...
What happened after the USAID shutdown?
New GODAD paper by Marcella Nicolini and Fabio Sabatini: exposed African regions saw falling nightlights and rising acute food insecurity, especially where vulnerability was high and institutions weaker.
godad.me
godad.uni-goettingen.de/uploads/GODA...
Werner Krause
Danbischof
Amelia Malpas
The OECD’s Development Assistance Committee is discussing changes to the rules on which countries are eligible to receive ODA. Any line that the OECD picks will be arbitrary, because there is no clear...
Viktor Orbán election defeat last month stunned many people. But in truth it’s not uncommon for would-be autocrats to lose at the ballot box. It’s a more hopeful picture than many people realize.
I've now seen four separate pieces accusing John Burn-Murdoch (Financial Times, you've seen his stuff before) of messing with his data on four separate occasions:
1. isitcredible.com/cases
2. unherd.com/newsroom/the...
3. github.com/James-Traina...
4. blog.albertkuo.me/post/2024-01...
A great overview of the accommodation question by Hanno Hilbig, worth your time!
The impact of the USAID shutdown on Africa, as seen from space and on the ground.
M. Nicolini and I study the effects of the aid cuts by linking GODAD data on USAID projects to satellite-based measures of economic activity and IPC food insecurity indicators.
👉 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
1/11
Seva
Fabio Sabatini
Axel Dreher
open.substack.com/pub/alexande...
Moving right on immigration can win voters, but the gains may not survive the losses
