Tencent flat from 2018 peak
Revenue 4xed, EPS 3xed
Alibaba down
$NTES vs $TCEHY since 2014
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
I know these are just made-up numbers, but striking to see that HSBC thinks Anthropic revenue is 3x OpenAI in 2026 and the gap will actually expand over time
Lots of talk about AI driven unemployment as workers' bargaining power declines, but why would employment and not wages be the channel through which this weakness manifests?
People are working backwards from higher corp profits as % of GDP, but wage growth < NGDP growth accomplishes that
Labour market is coming back
People are relieved at the price action in Asia
But remember -- everyone buys the first dip. Everyone.
Indian IT companies
China earnings trends are just terrible
Index down 10% YTD but its always a race between EPS cuts and total return there
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
No Sunk Costs
Weakness in wage growth stands in contrast to the strong labor market narrative many are taking for granted as reality. AHE at 3.4% at cycle lows, and averaged 2.7% last 3m annualized.
Bob Elliott
The projected earnings growth never shows up
Earnings in 2026 are still ~10% below 2021 levels
