actuary
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
Mike Beuoy
200 to 1
Visiting Jacob Bernoulli’s tomb in Basel.
He loved the logarithmic spiral because of its self similarity property. No matter how much you zoom out it looks the same.
The epitaph reads “EADEM MUTATA RESURGO”, meaning “Although changed, I will rise again the same”.
Bernoulli specifically requested this epitaph along with an engraved logarithmic spiral to go with it for his tomb.
Unfortunately the engraver misunderstood (or didn’t know what a logarithmic spiral was) and produced an Archimedean spiral instead.
Your opponent getting an offensive rebound when you're trying to make a late comeback is so demoralizing.
Also funny that tonight's comeback is sandwiched in between the two Pacers comebacks from last year's playoffs - against the Knicks and the Cavs.
Clutch Win Probability Added leaderboard for the 1st four games of the 2026 NBA Finals.
This counts all potential clutch plays - field goals, free throws, rebounds, turnovers, steals, blocks, and assists.
The 4th and 5th most improbable comebacks of the NBA playoffs took place almost exactly a year apart and at the same venue.
New post on Substack. Largely just an announcement that the new version of Excitement Index is now live for both NBA and WNBA win probability charts.
Link: inpredictable.substack.com/p/the-new-ex...
But the post also contains a chart showing what situations this new measure of excitement considers more "exciting".
For example, going from 5% win probability to 15% win probability (see bottom left of chart) is a much bigger deal under the new measure.
