Data scientist. Anti-fascist. Soccer fan. Disappointed Keynesian.
Warren 2020 voter. Sometimes writer for American Soccer Analysis
Matt Barger
Loading...
MD2 Group D matchups:
#USAAUS: Don't talk to me rn. I'm too nervous. Might be more open than we think. Don't know who that favors. Great matchup, obvious bias
#TURPAR: Both teams underestimated the stage last time and played right into their hands. Meh matchup, but could be an after-dark scorcher.
Matt Barger
USMNT history with second World Cup games
2022: 0-0 England
2018: We don't talk about this.
2014: 2-2 Portugal
2010: 2-2 Slovenia
2006: 1-1 Italy
2002: 1-1 Korea
1998: 1-2 Iran
1994: 2-1 Colombia
1990: 0-1 Italy
8 points from 8. Game 9 coming up today.
THING 3: What does the US right side do?
Pulisic deserved praise for how he opened up Paraguay with his dribbling. Tillman, Jedi for their dummy runs to open that space up for him.
But the AUS right has their best defenders; AUS left has their best attackers.
Serge, Freeman, time to shine kids.
Don't ask me for a score prediction.
The AUS block is a wall to be reckoned with. They'll rely on their physicality in the back and speed up top.
The USA's movement will chip away at that block patiently. Just like the last friendly, it will be chippy and rough.
Result depends on who scores first
If you told me four years ago that #USAAUS would be the match of the group stages, I'd tell you to get out.
But this is a peak style clash. The new-look Total Football USMNT meets the low-block-with-devastating-counter Australia.
Good pieces on tactics are out there. Here's what I'm looking for:
The US dominated Paraguay with 65% of the ball, 90% of the attacking third touches (field tilt), and 30 shots.
Aussie took that Paraguay stat-line and beat Turkey into submission with it.
"Have the stat sheet, mate. We'll take the points."
MD2 Group C matchups:
#MARSCO: Scotland returns to their familiar antagonist role. Morocco showed Brazil they can be a brutal protagonist in their first 30 minutes. Great matchup if SCO shows some bite.
#BRAHAI: If the Brazil midfield comes out in jeans again, Haiti might get a goal. Mid mismatch.
THING 1: What does the US off-ball movement look like to open up the space?
@backheeled.com had a fantastic piece on all the changes in the front line I didn't even notice.
Instead of passing the ball in the midfield to lull AUS to sleep, USA will try to run them in circles.
THING 2: Can the Aussies play through the press?
The US counterpress overwhelmed Paraguay.
But AUS counters came not just from Irankunda's speed (very worried for Tim Ream), but also smart countermovement from the midfield.
A Aussie from the bad site explains it better here.
x.com/aus_tactics/...
Turkey was slow, with a "just pass it to Arda" strategy that would make Will Ferrell blush.
In contrast, the US attacks came from bypassing the Paraguay block after all the interchanging between the CM, WB, and FW pulled Paraguay out of place.
Aus might not take the bait. h/t @mlsstat.bsky.social
