Climate Scientist | Studying how global warming affects us locally | Assistant Professor @ University of Rhode Island | https://web.uri.edu/geo/ambarish-karmalkar/
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With the new NMME model update, even the more conservative relative Oceanic Nino Index metric now has us roughly tied with 1998 and 2026 El Nino events: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
Abstract: The case is made that machine-learning statistical estimation neither can nor should be expected to supplant physics-based simulation for weather forecasting.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026.
They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:
Solar is forming an Indian 'duck curve', well, more like a 'Bactrian hump' (two hump camel).
The amount of solar used during the day is really eating into coal use. Solar is big in India!
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"Understanding where confidence is justified, and where uncertainties remain, is important for interpreting current El Niño headlines responsibly." www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
The cooling of the stratosphere caused by rising atmospheric CO₂ is a clear sign of human influence on climate. However, the processes that determine the extent and vertical profile of this cooling were not fully understood… until now. 🧪
Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification
Stronger westerlies drove upwelling & intense mixing, exposing sea ice to hidden deep ocean heat
The result: a self-reinforcing low-ice state that may persist under continued GHG forcing
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Don’t remember the last time I experienced such relentless heat for over a month that I just did in Mumbai. www.theweek.in/news/india/2...
Very cool @nationalacademies.org report release webinar relevant to the Palcolimate community on "Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events". April 29. Sign up! www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DEL...
Higher carbon dioxide levels widen the part of the heat spectrum that can emit energy to space, cooling the stratosphere and strengthening the warming effect of this gas, according to idealized spectr...
India’s electricity grid is facing a structural shift as intensifying heatwaves, rapid urbanisation and rising cooling demand push power consumption to unpreced
