Director of Economic Policy Studies and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Professor of Practice at Georgetown University. Contributing Columnist for the Financial Times.
Michael R Strain
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2/ On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the BLS, alleging that she “faked the Jobs Numbers” and was “incompetent.” This event provides a rare opportunity to study something that is otherwise difficult to measure: the value of trustworthy official statistics.
4/ Applying our baseline estimate of the impact of about $20 billion suggests that the marginal erosion in public trust in the quality and integrity of BLS data cost the nation about $25 for every $1 of direct government spending on the agency.
6/ Paper here: www.nber.org/papers/w35135
5/ Alternatively, trust in BLS raises GDP by at least one order of magnitude more than the agency’s budget, just through the channel of supporting investor confidence.
My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power."
www.aei.org/foreign-and-...
#policysky
3/ Economic policy uncertainty spiked in the wake of the president’s efforts to undermine public trust in BLS data, as you would expect to see if trust in a crucial source of information about the economy had been eroded.
Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w35135
We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social
tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr...
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax
How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
Michael R Strain
Michael R Strain
Michael R Strain
Michael R Strain
Michael R Strain
Michael R Strain
Opinion Today
🚨New paper.
🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget.
cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky
