When are causal parameters identified in instrumental variables models? This paper shows many such models share a common necessary and sufficient condition for identification that is constructive and suggests a simple sample-analogue estimator.
buff.ly/4uw9gj0
Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 3 (May 2026) is now online
www.econometricsociety.org/publications...
People underreact when inferring states, yet overreact when forecasting from the same signals. Fan, Liang & Peng show the question type triggers different heuristics—similarity between available and elicited statistics determines which shortcut dominates.
buff.ly/ampbeNm
How do anti-misinformation policies work? RCT & structural estimation on Twitter/𝕏 in the US: priming outperforms fact-checking by raising salience of reputation at low cost, curbing false news & preserving true news. Veracity updating matters less.
buff.ly/Nr9JbFO
Why do richer economies have more very large firms? This paper shows that the upper tail of the firm size distribution thickens as economies grow. A model of idea search explains why, showing how growth itself can produce rising concentration.
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Local projections are surprisingly robust to misspecification. By contrast, VAR confidence intervals with short-to-moderate lag length can severely undercover for misspecification that is small, difficult to detect, and cannot be ruled out a priori.
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When a Bayesian parametric model can be embedded in an encompassing semiparametric framework, likelihood augmentation via efficient scores delivers robustness to local misspecification and semiparametrically efficient inference.
buff.ly/lEoRpmD
A job ladder model with incomplete markets links wealth to job search over the life cycle. It provides a new microfoundation for all three inputs in F(K, AL) and offers novel insights into how redistributive policies affect aggregate output and welfare. @leokaas.bsky.social
buff.ly/IqpiGoa
Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Haavelmo Prize for the best econometrics paper, awarded to Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson for “Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression.”
www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...
Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Frisch Medal for the best applied paper, awarded to Adrien Bilal, Niklas Engbom, Simon Mongey, and Giovanni L. Violante for “Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market.”
www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...
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I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...
I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...
