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Data science and public opinion analysis --- http://leewas.ch
LeeWas
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๐“๐ฐ๐จ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐š๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐œ๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ, ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ง ๐›๐ฒ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐š๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ. Among supporters, the 10M population cap is clearly motivated by anti-immigration sentiment. For opponents,the key concern is the threat the proposal poses to Switzerlandโ€™s bilateral agreements with the EU
๐ƒ๐ž๐ซ ๐€๐›๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐Ÿ ๐๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ-๐Œ๐ข๐จ-๐’๐œ๐ก๐ฐ๐ž๐ข๐ณ ๐ค๐ซ๐ž๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐š๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ก ๐ง๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ž ๐™๐ฎ๐ฐ๐š๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ , ๐๐จ๐œ๐ก ๐Ÿรผ๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ž ๐†๐ž๐ ๐ง๐ž๐ซ:๐ข๐ง๐ง๐ž๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญรผ๐ง๐๐ž๐ง ๐ž๐ข๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐ž๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐š๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ก๐ž ๐€๐ซ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ž ๐ข๐ฆ ๐™๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ Gemรคss 1. Welle der @20min.ch -/Tamedia-Abstimmungsumfrage spricht die Kรผndigung der bilateralen Vertrรคge am ehesten gegen die VI
๐ƒ๐ž๐ซ ๐€๐›๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐š๐ฆ๐ฉ๐Ÿ ๐๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ-๐Œ๐ข๐จ-๐’๐œ๐ก๐ฐ๐ž๐ข๐ณ ๐ค๐ซ๐ž๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐š๐ค๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ก ๐ง๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ž ๐™๐ฎ๐ฐ๐š๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง๐ , ๐๐จ๐œ๐ก ๐Ÿรผ๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ž ๐†๐ž๐ ๐ง๐ž๐ซ:๐ข๐ง๐ง๐ž๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญรผ๐ง๐๐ž๐ง ๐ž๐ข๐ ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐ž๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐š๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ก๐ž ๐€๐ซ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ž ๐ข๐ฆ ๐™๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฆ Gemรคss 1. Welle der @20min.ch -/Tamedia-Abstimmungsumfrage spricht die Kรผndigung der bilateralen Vertrรคge am ehesten gegen die VI
3d
What is particularly striking is the asymmetry: among supporters of the proposal, immigration and its perceived consequences are the decisive factors for vote choice. Among opponents, however, the dominant concern is the fear that agreements with the EU would be terminated bsky.app/profile/leew...
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LeeWas
LeeWas
@lucasleemann.bsky.social @mariostauble.bsky.social @rfrbrghs.bsky.social
๐ƒ๐ข๐ž ๐Ÿ. ๐–๐ž๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž ๐๐ž๐ซ @20min.ch-/๐“๐š๐ฆ๐ž๐๐ข๐š-๐€๐›๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐š๐ ๐ž ๐ฏ๐จ๐ง ๐‹๐ž๐ž๐–๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐š (๐Ÿ/๐Ÿ) Die ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ-๐Œ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ž๐ง-๐’๐œ๐ก๐ฐ๐ž๐ข๐ณ-๐ˆ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž aktuell von einer knappen Mehrheit unterstรผtzt (52% Ja, 46% Nein; 2% ohne Angabe). Der Vergleich mit frรผheren Umfragen zeigt eine gewisse Volatilitรคt #abst26 #chvote
LeeWas