Governments face persistent challenges in integrating refugees into the local labor
market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. ...
www.pnas.org
These results suggest that early & active employment support via public employment infrastructure can generate substantial & sustained gains in refugee labor market integration—but intensified counseling alone cannot address all barriers, particularly for refugee women from certain origin countries.
A few people have asked for the syllabus from my grad seminar on Generative AI for social science -- just posted it here:
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/10/n...
Moritz Marbach
Moritz Marbach
After 1M+ Ukrainian refugees arrived in Germany, the government launched the Job-Turbo (Oct 2023). At its heart: intensified counseling by caseworkers providing structured employment guidance, application support, and job referrals to ~400K unemployed refugees.
One concern is that caseworkers prioritizing refugees could disadvantage other job seekers. Caseworkers might shift their effort toward refugees, while refugees themselves could potentially crowd out other job seekers. However, we find little evidence supporting this concern.
For other refugee groups, gains concentrated among younger men. Effects for women were smaller and often not statistically significant—likely reflecting structural barriers such as childcare, slower language acquisition, and limited transferability of credentials in regulated professions.
Effects are broad-based for Ukrainians—men & women, all skill levels, unemployment durations, regions and labor market conditions. The vast majority of exits were into regular, unsubsidized employment rather than temporary /mini-jobs. Importantly, the employment gains were not short-lived.
Using administrative data and a DID, we find that among Ukrainian refugees, the monthly exit-to-job rate rose by 1.8pp—a 113% increase over baseline. That’s ~58,000 additional placements over 23 months. For refugees from Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq & others: +1pp (+28%), ~43,000 more placements!
