Professor, GSPIA, University of Ottawa. Middle East (Iran, Yemen), intelligence and national security. Former Defence analyst.
Thomas Juneau
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... and supply chains are strained
-and the Iranian threat on Hormuz remains permanently; there is no return to the pre-war status quo
-...and in any case, it won't happen in 60 days
"While acknowledging that Canada's relationship with the U.S. has changed and will likely never go back to "where it was or where we thought it was," Eyre told attendees of a University of Ottawa event last week that the relationship with the Americans remains crucial."
-...and as it goes on, the baseline of tension will remain high; inevitably, there will be spikes of violence (inlcuding between Israel and Hezbollah). For now, both will keep a mutual interest to deescalate - but for how long?
Reaching a nuclear deal - an actual deal, not the prolonged ceasefire announed today - will be extremely hard:
-both sides perceive they have the upper hand and will be intransigent
-Trump will be extremely reluctant to agree to a deal that looks like the 2015 JCPOA under Obama...
"We need to be careful about burning bridges with those who are still friendly," Eyre said at the event organized by the university's Centre for International Policy Studies.
... - and yet, Iran will be very reluctant to go further
-Iran views this as an existential issue - it will be patient and exploit Trump's impatience and lack of attention to detail
-no, the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen: it will be slow and gradual as insecurity continues...
Good quote by former CDS Wayne Eyre from our 2 June @uottawa.ca event in the @nationalpost.bsky.social by @christopher.bsky.social:
"we've got to remember there are more Americans friendly to Canada than there are Canadians"
nationalpost.com/news/politic...
