Philanthropist. Finance, economics, public policy, neuroscience, genomics, and a 6-string. Realistic optimist often mistaken for prophet of doom.
Be kind. This account retains zero trolls.
www.hussman.com
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
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Ho hum - dozens of overextension flags today - including this one - among the motherlode we've seen in the past 5 weeks.
Without implying that speculators can't do whatever speculators choose to do, their focus rarely gets this narrow except at extremes when they're all in.
“A crash is coming.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin says a massive crash is inevitable. He’s one of the most credible financial journalists in the world.
If the Buddha and Socrates boarded a spaceship in 400BC, going a million miles an hour, they'd reach Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun, about 400 years from now.
Meanwhile, *combined* revenues of all global telecom companies (phone, internet, cable) are ~ $1.4T. They trade about 1x. 🚀
From Simon White at Bloomberg:
“Putting gamma, realised correlation and dispersion on the same 3D grid shows that as far back as we have data, correlation has never been as low when gamma and dispersion have been as high."
May be useful to know it's a historic gamma squeeze now rather than later
"Never hold a grudge. While you're sitting there feeling sorry for yourself, the other guy's out dancing."
- Buddy Hackett
I know you don't care about valuation, risk, or history.
Even we've adapted to where we'll be perfectly happy if the bubble never ends. Still, that change involves being selectively constructive with safety nets (see my May comment), not diving into flaming tar.
Just sharing FYI
Jeff Weniger: More than half the S&P 500's total value is now in stocks priced above 10x sales. This was once considered an outlandish valuation, as it leaves little room for error. The list includes Nvidia, Apple, GOOG, MSFT, Broadcom, Tesla, Micron, Eli Lilly, AMD, Oracle and 57 more.
New comment is up on the website!
Record Extremes, Alternative Investments, and the Hippo
May bring some fresh perspective on "diversification" - a word many investors seem to be dropping from their vocabulary.
Hope you enjoy it! 🦛
